World Rail Market Study 2026: rail supply market heads for €266.8bn, but only 56% is open to European suppliers
UNIFE's 11th World Rail Market Study, prepared with Bain & Company and launched at InnoTrans 2026, forecasts the global rail supply market growing 3.2% a year to €266.8bn by 2029-31. The share of that market accessible to European suppliers has fallen to 56%.
The global rail supply market will keep growing, but more slowly, and a shrinking part of it is open to European manufacturers. That is the headline of the 11th World Rail Market Study (WRMS), published by the European rail supply association UNIFE with Bain & Company and launched at InnoTrans in Berlin on 22 September 2026 (UNIFE). The study covers 66 countries representing about 99% of world rail supply demand, across infrastructure, signalling (control-command), rolling stock, services and turnkey projects.
Key figures
| Market today | About €221bn a year on average over 2023-25 |
| Recent growth | 4.6% a year (2021-23 and 2023-25), a full recovery from the Covid-19 slump |
| Forecast | €266.8bn a year by 2029-31, average growth of 3.2% a year |
| Largest region | Asia Pacific, about 3.5% a year: India rising, China slowing |
| Fastest region | Latin America, about 5.5% a year |
| Europe | Western Europe 3.7% a year, Eastern Europe 3.6%, helped by further liberalisation |
| North America | 3.0% a year |
| Africa and Middle East | About 1.2% a year |
| CIS | 0.7% a year |
| Open to EU suppliers | 56% of the global market, down from 59% (2024 study), 61% (2022) and about 70% (2008) |
| Business lost | About €97bn a year, according to UNIFE |
Market access keeps falling
For the third study in a row, the share of the world market that European suppliers can realistically bid for has dropped. UNIFE blames faster growth in less accessible regions and rising protectionism, naming China, the USA and India, through trade restrictions and local-content rules (Railtarget, 29 September 2026). UNIFE Director General Enno Wiebe called strong growth and full order books "very positive", but said the continued decline in access was "concerning", pointing to EU tools such as Global Gateway to open markets. UNIFE Chair Martin Sion, also CEO of Alstom, stressed that demand for rail is strong and that the industry must keep innovating to meet it.
For context, the European Commission says European companies hold almost half of the global rail equipment and services market, and has proposed more than doubling transport funding under the Connecting Europe Facility to over €50bn in the next EU budget.
Why the Middle East looks slow on paper
The 1.2% a year forecast for Africa and the Middle East may surprise anyone following Gulf rail. Our reading: it is a growth rate, not a market size. Several very large programmes are already counted in the 2023-25 base, such as Riyadh Metro and the Etihad Rail network, so the next wave has to beat a high starting point. Projects still to be awarded, such as further Riyadh metro lines or the Abu Dhabi–Dubai high-speed line, can move the curve when contracts are signed. Recent orders show the region is still buying: more driverless trains for Riyadh (Alstom, about €460m) and 10 more inter-city trains for Saudi Arabia Railways (Stadler).
In Asia, the slowdown in China is relative. The country is still opening high-speed lines at a pace no other market matches (1,445 km in four months), but that market is mostly closed to foreign suppliers, which is exactly what drags down the accessibility figure.
An engineer's view
Signalling is where accessibility matters most. Control-command contracts are long, safety-critical and tied to national approval regimes, so local-content rules and home-grown standards (CTCS in China, Kavach in India, PTC in the USA) are effective barriers. ERTMS remains Europe's best export product, but only if the specification is stable: the European Union Agency for Railways is now calling for a pause in technical changes, a point that matters as much for export customers as for European railways.
Related reading
- German court strikes down the regulator's competitor clause
- UAE railway projects guide
- Rail industry events calendar 2026-2028
FAQ
How big is the global rail supply market?
About €221bn a year on average over 2023-25, forecast to reach €266.8bn a year by 2029-31, according to UNIFE's World Rail Market Study 2026.
Which region is growing fastest?
Latin America, at about 5.5% a year, ahead of Western Europe (3.7%) and Asia Pacific (about 3.5%).
What share of the market is open to European suppliers?
56%, down from 59% in the 2024 study and about 70% in 2008. UNIFE estimates the lost business at about €97bn a year.
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TrainsNews est un média indépendant et bilingue d'actualité ferroviaire mondiale, publié depuis 2024. La rédaction couvre la grande vitesse, le matériel roulant, l'infrastructure, la signalisation et les télécoms ferroviaires (ERTMS/ETCS, CBTC, FRMCS, GSM-R), l'exploitation, le fret et le financement des projets. Chaque article cite ses sources et donne les chiffres avec leur total. TrainsNews is an independent, bilingual (French/English) news outlet covering the global rail industry since 2024: high-speed rail, rolling stock, infrastructure, signalling and telecoms, operations, freight and project financing. Every article cites its sources.
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